This interesting analysis by a group of Bocconi scholars—Giuseppe Soda, Alessandro Iorio, and Leonardo Rizzo—done before the conclave conclusion, is careful to note that “We do not claim to predict the outcome of the Conclave.” But they did, at least on one of their measures. As detailed here "The innovation of the study lies in the definition of the three criteria that determine the “prominence” of a cardinal in the ecclesiastical network:" Status, information, and alliances. As you can see below, Robert Prevost led in status, though not in information or alliances. Like Kieran Healy, who first brought this to my attention, I'd be willing to count it as a win.
Top 5 by Status
Robert Prevost (moderate, US)
Lazzaro You Heung-sik (soft liberal, South Korea)
Arthur Roche (liberal, UK)
Jean-Marc Aveline (soft liberal, France)
Claudio Gugerotti (soft liberal, Italy)
Top 5 for Information Control
Anders Arborelius (soft conservative, Sweden)
Pietro Parolin (liberal, Italy)
Víctor Fernández (liberal, Argentina)
Gérald Lacroix (moderate, Canada)
Joseph Tobin (liberal, USA)
Top 5 for Coalition Building Capacity
Luis Antonio Tagle (soft liberal, Philippines)
Ángel Fernández Artime (soft liberal, Spain)
Gérald Lacroix (moderate, Canada)
Fridolin Besungu (soft conservative, Congo)
Sérgio da Rocha (soft liberal, Brazil)
Chalk one up for the networks people. www.unibocconi.it/en/news/netw...
— Kieran Healy (@kjhealy.co) May 11, 2025 at 1:05 PM
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