UPDATED November 18, 2017
Although the ABA has been careful not to direct a minimum cutoff LSAT score for law schools to admit individual applicants, if one looks at the law schools that have been found out of compliance with Standard 501 over the last two years, a clear pattern emerges of what the ABA considers acceptable LSAT numbers for the class as a whole.
Below is a list of schools that the ABA has taken action against for violating Standard 501 and the LSAT profiles of their students at their lowest point:
Ave Maria (remedial action) 2014: 148-143-139
Arizona Summit (probation) 2015 and 2016: 148-143-140
Appalachian (out of compliance letter) 2014: 148-144-141
Charlotte (probation) 2014: 146-142-138
Florida Coastal (out of compliance letter) 2014: 147-143-140
Texas Southern (censured) 2015: 146-143-141
Thomas Cooley (out of compliance letter) 2015 and 2016: 147-141-138
Thomas Jefferson (probation) 2016 147-143-141
Valparaiso (censured) 2013 148-143-141
One other data point worth considering: the ABA for a brief time refused to give provisional accreditation status to UNT in part because of concerns over compliance with Standard 501. The LSAT profile of their 2014 entering class was 151/147/143. In 2015, when the site team visited, it dropped to 150/146/143. So these LSATs seem right on the margin of what the ABA considers acceptable.
There is one other school that received a letter of noncompliance with Standard 501 recently and that was John Marshall Law School (Atlanta). Frankly, this is a bit of a head-scratcher for me. John Marshall's LSAT numbers aren't anything special, but they are nowhere as bad as the schools noted above. In 2015 their LSAT profile was 150-147-145 and in 2016 149-148-145. This is four points higher at the 25th percentile than any of the other schools that have been found out of compliance, a significant difference. So perhaps the ABA is trying to ratchet up its standards, which I would fully support. But I predict that after John Marshall gets an opportunity to respond to the ABA letter, they will ultimately not be found out of compliance with Standard 501.
To provide some context, here are some LSAT scores with the corresponding percentiles*:
151 48%
150 44%
149 40%
148 37%
147 33%
146 30%
145 27%
144 24%
143 21%
142 18%
141 16%
140 14%
139 12%
138 10%
137 8.5%
Here is another way of thinking about LSAT scores, based on the risk of LSAT takers failing out of school or flunking the bar exam:
David Frakt’s LSAT Score Risk Bands
156-180 Minimal Risk
153-155 Low Risk
150-152 Modest Risk
147-149 High Risk
145-146 Very High Risk
120-144 Extreme Risk
I believe that even "opportunity schools" should admit very few students from the very high risk category, and only if they have better than average college grades, and even fewer from the extreme risk category, and only with much better than average grades. Although students with LSATs in this range occasionally succeed, when a law school enrolls a significant percentage of such students, it is almost certain to have very high attrition rates, and very low bar passage rates. Admitting too many very high and extreme risk students is also likely to overwhelm the academic support staff, and forces the faculty to dumb down their classes, which hurts the stronger students. A reasonable 75/50/25 for an opportunity school would be 151/149/147 (and preferably higher in California). Keep in mind that this still means that up to 24% of the students will be below 147 and therefore in the very high or extreme risk bands. 150/148/146 would be pushing the envelope. Anything below that is a recipe for disaster.
Right now, any school with a current or recent LSAT profile at or below 149-145-142, especially if coupled with poor recent bar results, should expect a letter from the ABA, and start taking voluntary steps to raise their admission standards. Based on this, my pick for the school most likely to hear from the ABA soon:
Southern - 2016 LSATs 146-143-141 GPA 3.16/2.86/2.52. Southern has had bar pass rates in the 50s for the past few years.
Other potential candidates for ABA concern:
NC Central - 2016 LSATs 149-144-141
Charleston - 2016 LSATs 149-145-141
Both of these schools have also struggled on recent bar exams. When the 2017 Standard 509 Reports come out in a few weeks, I will update this list.
* LSAT conversion percentiles may vary a bit, usually less than one percentage point, from test to test.
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