While Donald Trump's influence within his party does not seem to be waning as much as many predicted following his presidential reelection defeat, there slowly seems to be an evolving move within the republican party. Many of the classic Trumpers, like Ted Cruz, who most would agree was initially a reluctant follower but is now "all-in," so to speak, are still playing to the Trumpian base with tactics such as their new boogeyman themes: critical race theory. Another wing of future leadership seems to be taking shape. Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, for instance, will headline the Iowa GOP’s annual Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines on Thursday. Her latest efforts are described as a course correction to appeal the party's conservative base without apparently the backing of Trump. The tactic of attempting to appeal to the right without Trump may be tough, but she too appears to be all-in: “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she recently observed concerning Trump's post-election behavior. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.” Haley is smart, accomplished, an ethnic minority, and a woman, which should appeal to many in a general election. The question will be if she can establish her legitimacy within the conservative republican base of the party. I am not sure she can, though she would be a fantastic person leading a presidential ticket.
Of course, the expected-ones, like Ted Cruz, will certainly run. Though I find it tough for anyone to follow that man (I am admittedly a progressive--so perhaps I am ill-equipped to judge Senator Cruz-- but really: Ted Cruz???). There will be others: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appears to already be running with his critical race theory ban in K-12 Florida public schools, where it is NOT taught. Then this week he demands Florida schools teach the evils of socialism and communism--not a difficult sell given world historical accounts. Yet, the obvious nature of failed political systems doesn't matter; what matters is what future voters hear. I would be stunned if DeSantis establishes any serious traction among national voters--then again, I would have lost my house regarding Trump in 2016.
Here are a couple of dark horses in the 2024 race: Senator Tom Cotton--again, as a progressive, not a fan. But the man is extremely talented and would be a formidable conservative choice. And finally, my puncher's chance candidate: Mitt Romney--yes the that Mitt Romney, who was booed and called a traitor at a conservative event in the state he represents. Don't count him out--movie-star good looks, presence, intellect, and stood up against Trump when few had the courage to do so. If my tea-leaves are accurate (never helped me professionally, sadly), as Trump's legal troubles mount, Trump will be alienated, especially after he becomes further unhinged when state investigations heat-up. Final prediction: if Romney is the nominee, he becomes our next president, especially if the economy takes a downturn. Yes, many indicators suggests the economy is ready to race forward, but others are troubling. Time will tell.
What do you think?
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