President Haley? Cruz? Or Romney?

While Donald Trump's influence within his party does not seem to be waning as much as many predicted following his presidential reelection defeat, there slowly seems to be an evolving move within the republican party. Many of the classic Trumpers, like Ted Cruz, who most would agree was initially a reluctant follower but is now "all-in," so to speak, are still playing to the Trumpian base with tactics such as their new boogeyman themes: critical race theory. Another wing of future leadership seems to be taking shape. Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, for instance, will headline the Iowa GOP’s annual Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines on Thursday. Her latest efforts are described as a course correction to appeal the party's conservative base without apparently the backing of Trump. The tactic of attempting to appeal to the right without Trump may be tough, but she too appears to be all-in: “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she recently observed concerning Trump's post-election behavior.  “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.” Haley is smart, accomplished, an ethnic minority, and a woman, which should appeal to many in a general election. The question will be if she can establish her legitimacy within the conservative republican base of the party. I am not sure she can, though she would be a fantastic person leading a presidential ticket. 

Of course, the expected-ones, like Ted Cruz, will certainly run. Though I find it tough for anyone to follow that man (I am admittedly a progressive--so perhaps I am ill-equipped to judge Senator Cruz-- but really: Ted Cruz???). There will be others: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appears to already be running with his critical race theory ban in K-12 Florida public schools, where it is NOT taught. Then this week he demands Florida schools teach the evils of socialism and communism--not a difficult sell given world historical accounts. Yet, the obvious nature of failed political systems doesn't matter; what matters is what future voters hear. I would be stunned if DeSantis establishes any serious traction among national voters--then again, I would have lost my house regarding Trump in 2016.

Here are a couple of dark horses in the 2024 race: Senator Tom Cotton--again, as a progressive, not a fan. But the man is extremely talented and would be a formidable conservative choice. And finally, my puncher's chance candidate: Mitt Romney--yes the that Mitt Romney, who was booed and called a traitor at a conservative event in the state he represents. Don't count him out--movie-star good looks, presence, intellect, and stood up against Trump when few had the courage to do so. If my tea-leaves are accurate (never helped me professionally, sadly), as Trump's legal troubles mount, Trump will be alienated, especially after he becomes further unhinged when state investigations heat-up. Final prediction: if Romney is the nominee, he becomes our next president, especially if the economy takes a downturn. Yes, many indicators suggests the economy is ready to race forward, but others are troubling. Time will tell. 

What do you think?

 

 

Comments

[anonprof101]

Come on Ben Sasse! Super smart and consistently anti-Trump.

[Ediberto Roman]

Thanks Anonprof101. I need to educate myself more on Ben---love to learn. Much appreciated.

[Anon]

Ben Sasse is the paper tiger of morality. All talk (he wrote a book on how corn detasselling gives kids character) but almost always votes in lockstep with the hard right. I would never count on him to be your hero to take a stand. More like lead from behind.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Cruz a classic Trumper? Oceania was always at war with Eastasia, never Eurasia?

While Romney was narcissistic and ignorant enough to run as the candidate in 2012 when the GOP knew it stood no chance, it's doubtful he is unaware of the extent to which more than just the base holds him in utter contempt today.

Haley was being groomed for the role long before Trump came along. She stands for nothing and is of the correct gender. So, she can serve as a useful puppet for the GOP establishment, which wishes to steer its party away from something that approximates conservatism and back onto the path of the long neoliberal night.

[Anon An0n]

This is well-meaning but detached from the reality of the Republican Party. Although it's tempting to view Trump as merely the last gasp of racist old people, that analysis is badly off the mark. The GOP has long has a significant split between its elites (who tend to skew libertarian and establishment) and its base (who, while they have both tendencies are much more old-fashioned conservative than we tend to think). Trump spoke to the base and triumphed.

This creates a weird situation because the base is, for lack of a better word, largely morons. Voting for Trump doesn't necessarily show that, but believing the election lies does. And the GOP establishment I think was a little surprised that the base was quite so dumb as to believe Trump about the election. There's no way a candidate who openly opposed Trump has a serious future in the Republican party. The divide is going to be between the largely elite establishment who know Trump is lying and change the subject, and the insurgents who see a path to higher office by going all in on the big lie. A lot of people are pinning their hopes on DeSantis as someone who can have his foot in both camps, but he can't keep up that dance forever.

[anon]

Anon AnOn

"This creates a weird situation because the base is, for lack of a better word, largely morons."

Hmmm. Let's think about that one and pretend that those who accuse others of being "detached from reality" are not. All we have here is the hate and schtick that substitutes for "opinion" on outlets like MSNBC.

You need to study your voter stats.