Science Based Medicine on the Lab Leak Theory

As David Gorski (MD, PhD) explains on the invaluable Science Based Medicine site, the lab leak theory ought to be investigated but it is still extremely unlikely. Key graf:

If the question is “are both hypotheses possible?” the answer is yes. Both are possible. If the question is “are they equally likely?” the answer is absolutely not. One hypothesis requires a colossal cover-up and the silent, unswerving, leak-proof compliance of a vast network of scientists, civilians, and government officials for over a year. The other requires only for biology to behave as it always has, for a family of viruses that have done this before to do it again. The zoonotic spillover hypothesis is simple and explains everything. It’s scientific malpractice to pretend that one idea is equally as meritorious as the other. The lab-leak hypothesis is a scientific deus ex machina, a narrative shortcut that points a finger at a specific set of bad actors. I would be embarrassed to stand up in front of a room of scientists, lay out both hypotheses, and then pretend that one isn’t clearly, obviously better than the other.

Long but worth reading (with some skimming) here. 

Comments

[anon]

It is so incredible how the left, claiming to follow "the science" was so bound and determined to discredit Trump that they wound up losing what little credibility they had left. They politicized every issue, including this one.

The evil orange man killed all those people: killed them, they said. NO remedy could work. NO vaccine could be developed in a year (i.e., before the election). No blame could be attributed to ANYTHING: poor preparation by the CDC, et al., iatrogenic injuries and death owing to malpractice, venal state officers, ridiculous efforts to skew the data to hide malfeasance, etc.

Instead, the left, including their lackeys in academia, big tech and the mass media, lied incessantly, covered up the truth and, above all, made sure that no blame could be focused anywhere but on that one, orange man.

What a pitiful group of ideologues. Now that the orange man is out of the news, slowly, the truth starts to seep out. But, as usual, those who care only about politics and no NOTHING about "the science" cherry pick obscure, sort of bizarrely written pieces to try to justify their efforts, past and present, to stifle the truth in support of their leftist goals.

GET OUT OF THE WAY, WHY DON'T YOU? Are you really that sure that there is no truth to the truths that have and are emerging?

Or, more precisely, what expertise do you have to make any claim whatsoever in these regards?

[anon but not the other anon]

Steve, why did you find this expert's conclusion -- "extremely unlikely" -- credible given that other experts have different views about the likelihood of a lab origin?

And wouldn't you agree that the linked article spends a *lot* of time committing the genetic fallacy over and over?

[Rohin Vadera]

One hypothesis requires a colossal cover-up and the silent, unswerving, leak-proof compliance of a vast network of scientists, civilians, and government officials for over a year.

I don't know if a vast network is required, but there was a vast network of people unswervingly denying the possibility of a lab leak, until now. It's also something that the Chinese govt has a huge incentive to keep covered up, and they have not allowed any independent audit of their record and logs either.