Why History Favors Trump's Reelection

Like all Democrats, I am hopeful that Donald Trump will be a one-term president, and I will vote for anyone nominated to run against him in 2020. But I have to admit that the historical precedents favor Trump’s reelection. There have been just seven times in U.S. history when an incumbent political party (party, not individual president) failed to hold the White House for at least two terms, only one of which was in the past 120 years. Of course, that was Jimmy Carter’s loss in 1980.

All of the other one-term episodes were in the 19^th Century, and three of them were in odd situations. The Whigs failed twice to hold the presidency for consecutive terms, but that was largely because both of their elected presidents died in office – William Henry Harrison and Zachary Taylor – to be succeeded by less popular vice presidents, one of whom (John Tyler) was actually expelled from the party after becoming president.

The Democrats failed to hold the presidency twice in the late 19^th Century, both times following an administration of Grover Cleveland, who did win two non-consecutive terms. Benjamin Harrison was elected in between, resulting in the Republicans’ one and only failure to win at least two terms in a row (in 1892). The single other time a party failed to win consecutive terms was Democrat James K. Polk’s presidency, which was sandwiched between the two Whigs, Harrison and Taylor. (I am counting George Washington as a proto-Federalist, who was succeeded by fellow Federalist John Adams.)

There have been quite a few one-term presidents, from John Quincy Adams to George H.W. Bush. There were once six single terms in a row, as no president was reelected between Andrew Jackson in 1832, and Abraham Lincoln in 1864. The Republicans went on to win the next six elections – still a record – followed by the Cleveland-Harrison-Cleveland pas de deux, which ended with the election of William McKinley in 1896. Since then, with the exception of poor Jimmy Carter’s crushing defeat by Ronald Reagan, neither Democrats nor Republicans have been bounced from the White House after a single term.

If you are keeping score, the Whigs failed to hold the presidency twice, the Democrats failed four times, and the Republicans just once.

None of this bodes well for defeating the Trump-led Republicans in 2020. Mitch McConnell’s determination to make Barack Obama a one-term president failed badly, despite his shrewd control of the Senate agenda, as Americans seem very much inclined to give presidents, or at least their parties, a second chance at fulfilling their promises.

Although President Trump has experienced historically poor approval ratings, political parties – and especially the Republicans – have a long tradition of holding on to the presidency for at least two terms. Trump, of course, has trashed almost every other tradition, so there is hope that he and the Republicans will defy this one as well.