Justice Thomas and the New Senate

Yesterday’s midterm election results shifted the U.S. Senate’s ideological center to the right. Senate Republicans began the day clinging to a narrow 51-49 majority, but they have emerged from the midterms with a strong 53-seat majority. Consequently, President Trump no longer needs the support of Sen. Susan Collins or Sen. Lisa Murkowski—the two most moderate members of the Republican caucus—to secure the confirmation of his federal judicial appointments.

It will be interesting to see whether the expanded conservative majority in the Senate prompts Clarence Thomas to retire next summer after almost three decades on the Supreme Court. As measured by Martin-Quinn scores, Justice Thomas is by far the Court’s most conservative member. There is no doubt he would like to see an equally conservative justice succeed him. The GOP Senate victories give Thomas cause to at least consider the idea of stepping down before the 2020 presidential election, timing calculated to make certain a highly conservative justice could be confirmed to replace him. 

To be sure, there are compelling reasons why Thomas might choose to remain on the Court for years to come. Foremost among them is the fact that he loves his job. During a Federalist Society event in 2013, he observed:

“I never thought that I would treasure doing my job, and I’ve reached that point. Even the most boring cases to others are fascinating to me. . . . I’ve gotten to this point where it’s like the priesthood. This is what I’m called to do.”

Moreover, by Supreme Court standards, Justice Thomas is not even close to retirement age. The average retirement age for modern justices is 83 and rising. Thomas, in contrast, is only 70. His former colleague John Paul Stevens served until age 90 and his current colleague Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 85. As long as his health holds up, Thomas could still be an active justice 15 or even 20 years from now.

But if Thomas is not interested in serving into his 80s, then he has a decision to make. In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 Senate seats but Democrats only 12; Republicans will also be defending more seats in 2022. There is no guarantee that the ideological make-up of the Senate in the 2020s will be as favorable to conservatives as the 2019 session. Likewise, in this era of razor-thin election margins, it is entirely possible Democrats will recapture the presidency at some point in the 2020s.

It is at least conceivable, therefore, that Justice Thomas may choose to retire a bit earlier than one would otherwise expect in order to ensure a like-minded conservative holds his seat for many decades to come. If Thomas does decide to step down next summer, Donald Trump will become the first president in 30 years to make 3 Supreme Court appointments. 

Comments

[The Law Offcies of Kavanaugh Thomas, LLC, PC, LTD, Chartered, AV Rated]

Did he ever pay for those Corvette tires?

[anon]

Your post assumes that Democrats can't confirm a person appointed by a Republican president and that any person appointed by a Democrat would be a party hack.

So sad. Instead of questioning the wisdom of blind partisanship that trumps any consideration of the nominee's character and qualifications, you just feed the notion that this is a team sport and the only consideration is bunting, or whatever you prefer to call it, to save the team.

[The Law Offcies of Kavanaugh Thomas, LLC, PC, LTD, Chartered, AV Rated]

^^anon, Read My Lips, Merrick Garland.