The ABA's Bar Passage Data Spreadsheet should put to bed, finally, any doubts about the correlation between LSAT scores and bar passage rates, and provides strong support for the ABA's recent enforcement actions against law schools with exploitative admissions standards. It proves that schools that admit significant numbers of high risk students are virtually guaranteed to have very poor bar passage results three years later. Let’s take a look at how the different pages of the spreadsheet prove this in different ways.
First, some definitions. I define "very high risk students" as those with an LSAT of 145 and 146. These students are at very high risk of flunking out of law school (academic attrition) and of failing the bar if they do manage to graduate. I define "extremely high risk students" as those with a 144 and below on the LSAT. These students are at extremely high risk of flunking out or failing the bar.
The first spreadsheet, Ultimate Bar Passage 2015, reports on law students who graduated in 2015. The national average UBP among all ABA Law schools was 87.83%. The vast majority of these 2015 graduates started law school in 2012. So I went back to take a look at the entrance credentials of all ABA law school in 2012. (Note - the three ABA law schools located in Puerto Rico are excluded from the analysis in this post.) This data is available at the ABA Standard 509 Report page by going to the Compilation -All Schools Data and creating a spreadsheet for the section GPA and LSAT Scores (calendar year). In 2012, there were 24 schools which enrolled an entering class with at least 25% very high risk students, that is, their 25% LSAT was at 146 or below. Ten of these schools failed to reach an Ultimate Bar Passage rate of 75% for the class of 2015 within two years: Detroit Mercy (56.88%), Arizona Summit (59.75%), New England School of Law - Boston (60.26%), Valparaiso (69.35%), WMU Cooley (69.75%), Ohio Northern (71.88%), Florida Coastal (72.08%), South Dakota (72.73%), North Dakota (73.21%), and Barry (73.50%). Another school that definitely would have failed is Charlotte Law, but since they went out of business and lost their accreditation, they are not included in the ABA's 2018 Spreadsheet.
The ABA Spreadsheet also includes date on first-time bar pass rates for 2016 and 2017. I compared these spreadsheets with the data from the 2013 and 2014 entering classes to see how the very high risk schools fared.
In 2016, there were 18 schools with a first time bar pass rate below 50%. 12 of the 18 were schools that admitted very high risk classes (Appalachian, Arizona Summit, Atlanta’s John Marshall, Florida Coastal, WMU Cooley, Thomas Jefferson, Barry, Dayton, St. Thomas (FL), Whittier, Valparaiso, and LaVerne), four were schools with slightly stronger students, but in California, where the bar is much tougher to pass (Western State, USF, Golden Gate, Southwestern). The others were UDC and Willamette, which had 25% LSAT’s at 147 and 148, in my "high risk" category, but not quite "very high risk". (Note – after Oregon lowered the bar pass cut score for 2017, Willamette’s bar pass rate improved dramatically to 76.84%).
Almost all of the schools that admitted substantial numbers of very high risk or extremely high risk students in 2013 did very poorly on the bar in 2016, with only 3 above the benchmark of 75%. The national average for all law schools (excluding the three Puerto Rico law schools) was 72.85%.
BAR PERFORMANCE OF VERY HIGH RISK LAW SCHOOLS IN 2016
| School | 25th Percentile LSAT 2013 | 50th Percentile LSAT 2013 | 2016 First-Time Bar Pass Rate |
| WHITTIER LAW SCHOOL | 145 | 149 | 22.66 |
| UNIVERSITY OF LA VERNE | 146 | 147 | 32.66 |
| APPALACHIAN SCHOOL OF LAW | 143 | 145 | 33.33 |
| ARIZONA SUMMIT LAW SCHOOL | 141 | 144 | 34.44 |
| THOMAS JEFFERSON SCHOOL OF LAW | 144 | 146 | 37.32 |
| FLORIDA COASTAL SCHOOL OF LAW | 141 | 144 | 40 |
| ST. THOMAS UNIVERSITY (FLORIDA) | 145 | 147 | 44.9 |
| BARRY UNIVERSITY | 145 | 147 | 45.83 |
| ATLANTA'S JOHN MARSHALL LAW SHOOL | 146 | 149 | 45.93 |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY | 141 | 145 | 48.13 |
| DAYTON, UNIVERSITY OF | 145 | 148 | 48.15 |
| VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY | 141 | 143 | 49.31 |
| FLORIDA A&M UNIVERSITY | 144 | 146 | 50.47 |
| ELON UNIVERSITY | 146 | 150 | 51.76 |
| SOUTH DAKOTA, UNIVERSITY OF | 144 | 147 | 51.85 |
| NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL UNIVERSITY | 142 | 145 | 58.23 |
| AVE MARIA SCHOOL OF LAW | 141 | 146 | 58.33 |
| CHARLESTON SCHOOL OF LAW | 146 | 150 | 58.6 |
| NORTH DAKOTA, UNIVERSITY OF | 145 | 148 | 59.09 |
| TOURO COLLEGE | 145 | 148 | 59.26 |
| CAPITAL UNIVERSITY | 145 | 148 | 59.48 |
| SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY | 145 | 149 | 59.84 |
| TEXAS SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY | 141 | 144 | 60.28 |
| MISSISSIPPI COLLEGE | 145 | 149 | 60.3 |
| UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS DARTMOUTH | 145 | 148 | 61.11 |
| NEW ENGLAND LAW | BOSTON | 145 | 149 | 61.46 |
| OKLAHOMA CITY UNIVERSITY | 145 | 149 | 61.48 |
| SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY | 142 | 144 | 61.59 |
| NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY | 146 | 149 | 64.6 |
| ROGER WILLIAMS UNIVERSITY | 146 | 149 | 64.77 |
| WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNIVERSITY | 145 | 149 | 66.32 |
| JOHN MARSHALL LAW SCHOOL | 146 | 149 | 67.02 |
| OHIO NORTHERN UNIVERSITY | 145 | 150 | 70.17 |
| FAULKNER UNIVERSITY | 142 | 146 | 70.42 |
| WIDENER-COMMONWEALTH | 145 | 148 | 78.43 |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY | 146 | 150 | 79.52 |
| LINCOLN MEMORIAL | 145 | 149 | 87.5 (14 of 16 students passed) |
This pattern repeated itself in 2017. In 2017, there were 12 schools with a first-time bar pass rate below 50% (Arizona Summit, Thomas Jefferson, Whittier, Florida Coastal, UDC, LaVerne, Charleston, WMU Cooley, South Dakota, Valparaiso, Golden Gate and Atlanta’s John Marshall). All 12 of these schools admitted very high risk classes. In addition, there were 7 other schools with a first time bar pass rate between 50 and 55%, 5 with very high risk classes (Faulkner, Elon, Florida A&M, Ave Maria and Mississippi College) and two schools from California (Southwestern and University of San Francisco). Of the 44 law schools that admitted very high risk classes in 2014, only 3 reached the benchmark first-time pass rate of 75%. The national average for all law schools (excluding the three Puerto Rico law schools) was 75.81%.
BAR PERFORMANCE OF VERY HIGH RISK LAW SCHOOLS IN 2017
| School | 25th Percentile LSAT 2014 | 50th Percentile LSAT 2014 | 2017 First-Time Bar Pass Rate |
| ARIZONA SUMMIT LAW SCHOOL | 140 | 144 | 26.53 |
| THOMAS JEFFERSON SCHOOL OF LAW | 141 | 145 | 29.17 |
| WHITTIER LAW SCHOOL | 143 | 146 | 35.26 |
| FLORIDA COASTAL SCHOOL OF LAW | 140 | 143 | 39.52 |
| DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | 145 | 148 | 40 |
| UNIVERSITY OF LA VERNE | 144 | 147 | 42.11 |
| CHARLESTON SCHOOL OF LAW | 143 | 148 | 43.59 |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY | 141 | 145 | 45.95 |
| SOUTH DAKOTA, UNIVERSITY OF | 144 | 148 | 46 |
| VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY | 141 | 145 | 46.6 |
| GOLDEN GATE UNIVERSITY | 146 | 149 | 48.86 |
| ATLANTA'S JOHN MARSHALL LAW SHOOL | 146 | 148 | 49.34 |
| FAULKNER UNIVERSITY | 142 | 145 | 50.68 |
| ELON UNIVERSITY | 145 | 148 | 51.22 |
| FLORIDA A&M UNIVERSITY | 144 | 146 | 51.24 |
| AVE MARIA SCHOOL OF LAW | 139 | 143 | 52.78 |
| MISSISSIPPI COLLEGE | 144 | 147 | 53.84 |
| BARRY UNIVERSITY | 144 | 146 | 56 |
| NORTHERN KENTUCKY UNIVERSITY | 146 | 150 | 56.09 |
| DAYTON, UNIVERSITY OF | 145 | 148 | 56.52 |
| NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL UNIVERSITY | 141 | 144 | 57.14 |
| SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY | 142 | 144 | 57.81 |
| NEW ENGLAND LAW | BOSTON | 146 | 150 | 58.62 |
| WESTERN STATE COLLEGE OF LAW | 146 | 149 | 58.66 |
| ST. THOMAS UNIVERSITY (FLORIDA) | 144 | 148 | 59.3 |
| CALIFORNIA WESTERN SCHOOL OF LAW | 146 | 150 | 59.69 |
| TEXAS SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY | 143 | 145 | 60 |
| WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNIVERSITY | 143 | 146 | 60.22 |
| SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY-CARBONDALE | 144 | 147 | 60.4 |
| VERMONT LAW SCHOOL | 146 | 152 | 60.68 |
| SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY | 143 | 146 | 60.69 |
| TOURO COLLEGE | 145 | 146 | 60.81 |
| APPALACHIAN SCHOOL OF LAW | 141 | 144 | 60.97 |
| CAPITAL UNIVERSITY | 144 | 148 | 65.1 |
| NORTH DAKOTA, UNIVERSITY OF | 143 | 150 | 67.74 |
| WIDENER-COMMONWEALTH | 145 | 148 | 67.74 |
| ROGER WILLIAMS UNIVERSITY | 145 | 148 | 67.86 |
| NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY | 146 | 148 | 68.72 |
| UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS DARTMOUTH | 145 | 147 | 72.73 |
| JOHN MARSHALL LAW SCHOOL | 146 | 149 | 73.02 |
| OKLAHOMA CITY UNIVERSITY | 145 | 148 | 73.98 |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY | 146 | 150 | 76.05 |
| OHIO NORTHERN UNIVERSITY | 144 | 150 | 76.19 |
| ARKANSAS, LITTLE ROCK, UNIVERSITY OF | 146 | 150 | 76.47 |
In a future column, I will look at why this small handful of schools with very high risk students manage to defy the odds and do reasonably well on the bar exam.
The spreadsheets also provide additional justification for the ABA's enforcement actions in recent years. Of the eleven law schools that have been cited by the ABA for violating the Admissions Standard 501b (Ave Maria, Arizona Summit, Appalachian, Charlotte, Florida Coastal, John Marshall Atlanta, North Carolina Central, Texas Southern, WMU Cooley, Thomas Jefferson, and Valparaiso), all had bar pass rates at or below 60% the last two years. Texas Southern had the highest pass rate among this group with 60% in 2017 and 60.24 in 2016.
In my next column, I will look at anomalies and other interesting facts revealed by the ABA Spreadsheet.
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