The Cruz Strategy

Ted Cruz’s non-endorsement speech at the Republican National Convention drew boos from Trump delegates and (it has been reported) a rebuff from Sheldon Adelson, but it strikes me as a very astute tactical move that puts him in a great position for a future run at the presidency. 

As a teacher of trial advocacy, I can only congratulate him on the adroit maneuver.  Let’s look at the decision tree. 

Consideration 1:  One of two things will happen in November: Donald Trump will either win or lose. 

Consideration 2:  If Trump loses, then Hillary Clinton will be president and Republicans will immediately begin planning for 2020.  In that scenario, Cruz would be uniquely insulated from Trump’s loss, and in an excellent position to claim the mantle of traditional Republicanism, while Trump’s endorsers will have to explain their support for his unorthodox positions on NATO, free trade, and the “big tent.”  This puts him in a great position to seek the 2020 nomination.

Consideration 3: If Trump wins, his presidency will be either successful or unsuccessful.

Consideration 4: If Trump’s presidency is unsuccessful, Cruz will be in a good position to challenge him for the nomination in 2020, unlike those who joined the Trump train.  See Consideration 2, above.

Consideration 5: If Trump’s presidency is successful, then no Republican would challenge him in 2020.  The next open nomination would be in 2024, at which point nobody would care very much about a twenty minute speech from eight years earlier.  And even if they do remember, Cruz will have had eight years to mend fences and rebuild alliances.

All of this is highly contingent, of course, and lots can happen in the coming years (or even in the coming months).  Still, you have to give Ted Cruz a lot of credit for seeing a possible path to the presidency that has eluded most of his fellow GOP hopefuls.

(We cannot rule out the possibility that Cruz’s motive was mostly personal.  He has many good reasons to be angry at Trump.  But Cruz is also a very shrewd strategist, so it seems pretty certain that he was also jockeying for a future intra-party advantage.)

Comments

[Zoltan Harvic]

" . . . so it seems pretty certain that he was also jockeying for a future intra-party advantage."

Uh, sure, Steve.

And irreparably torching how many bridges with the GOP base in the process?

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

Cruze, a cheap Chevy.

[PaulB]

A very silly argument. Do you think Bernie should do the same to position himself for the 2020 race?

[anon]

A Chevy Cruze? No! Three bills for a simple b&e and everybody has got to go get a grease pen to put on the board showing monthly performance while the job fair attendees wait to sell attorney time to Illinois deadbeats who don't want to pay. THey think this kind of talent comes for free! Toyota is up. In Indiana Mickey is not selling the Fords. Sales! Wait, my phone is ringing. Ms. wants steak for dinner but I am eating leftovers and reflecting on Spinoza's axioms. My wit is getting a lot of attention here. Just wait till I unleash my best stuff. I love to waste others time and I tend to eat a lot of beans before attending public events. Maybe you'll try to shut me down. Fun!!!!

[J 1]

Another possibility: Trump loses by a whisker and Cruz is blamed. Four years of Clinton might make Ted look bad.

[Enrique Guerra Pujol]

What about Senator Cruz's "solemn pledge" to support the nominee of the Republican Party, including Trump?

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

The only thing Chevy Cruze ever did was delay my 2013 tax refund during his filibuster to not raise the debt ceiling. As a schlepper lawyer, I really needed the money to pay my student loan.

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

anon at 3:38:

Yes, crudely put, but essentially correct. If one really thinks about and considers what a lawyer like me does everyday. I put on a suit in the morning, drive to the courthouse and wave and strut my arms to a prosecutor and tap dance before a judge. I hawk "bullshit" to Illinois deadbeats. I really have "nothing" and try to make something from that nothing to pay my IBR. You are doubly right. Getting three bills from those "deadbeats" is the most difficult part of the practice by far....The line between ethical conduct and extortion to earn a living is very thin.... Thanks for reading my good stuff....

[anon]

Delusions are the coin of the realm.

[Bernie Burk]

To PaulB, 7/21 at 1:51 p.m.:

I am not positioning myself for the 2020 race.

--Bernie

[anon]

Bernie Burk

That's a relief!

[PaulB]

Bernie,

Sorry to hear that. I'm already worried about who's going to be running that year as well!

[twbb]

"while Trump’s endorsers will have to explain their support for his unorthodox positions on NATO, free trade, and the “big tent.” "

If they're not being forced to explain their support now, I'm not sure why you think they'll be forced to explain it in the future.

[anon]

I think it was a miscalculation. Even if Trump loses, his followers remain a large part of the party. The intelligentsia of the Republican Party hate Cruz no matter what. If he wants to win in 2020 or beyond, he will need a large swath of Trump voters. He basically admitted this early in the campaign when he refused to criticize Trump. Even if Trump loses, Cruz will be seen as a traitor to Trump voters. Your calculation bets that these voters will "see the light" and change position due to either a failed Trump presidential bid, or a failed Trump presidency. Considering that Republican voters rewarded Republicans in 2010 even after what was seen as a failed Bush presidency in both the economy and foreign policy, your assumptions seem doubtful.