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July 16, 2016


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Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King

Bob Dole noted that cigarettes are not addictive and that milk is bad for a lot of people too. History repeats itself!!! Bob Dole lost to a Clinton.


Of course, science is science. So, let's go right to the meme du jour of the Party. From the Washington Post:

"The terrifying rate at which smokers die from smoking
By Danielle Paquette February 26, 2015

... Two-thirds of smokers will die early from cigarette-triggered illness -- unless they choose to kick the habit, according to new research from Australia.

The study of more than 200,000 people, published this week in BMC medicine, found about 67 percent of smokers perished from smoking-related illness. That rate is higher than doctors previously estimated."

So, in 2015, "new research from Australia" - a study of 200,000 people - showed that the rate of 2/3 was "higher than doctors previously estimated." How much higher than estimated 15 years earlier? Not stated.

We know that the Pence ATROCITY was committed in 2001, when he was at 1/3. One study, in 2015, which most statisticians would say was of marginal overall value in establishing the "truth" was at 2/3.

So, at best for the hysterics in the Party tearing their hair out all over the popular media about this (WHY, oh WHY, do Filler and Lubet insist on using this site for their superficial political attacks, which usually amount to no more than repeating something that was in the HP?), this difference, over a fifteen year period and based on the Australian study, doesn't seem to be grounds to be arrogantly claiming superiority in intellect. It took about two minutes to find the WP piece: one is sure that one could find a study at the time that would have supported the Pence statement.

As further stated in the Washington Post piece: ""We knew smoking was bad, but we now have direct, independent evidence that confirms the disturbing findings that have been emerging internationally," said co-author Emily Banks, a researcher at the Australian National University."

Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King

anon at 2:47:

Are you saying that Trump voters should "smoke 'em if they got 'em?" Clinton would win by default then.


For the rate of lung cancer claim, the stats are even more complicated, and definitely embarrass the Party again.

From the researchers at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in 2013:

"For the new study, the data from 18,172 subjects ... For the risk prediction model, the duration of smoking, average number of cigarettes smoked per day, duration of abstinence, and age turned out to be the main factors that determined the probability of an individual being diagnosed with lung cancer. Looking at examples from people undergoing lung cancer screening, a 51-year-old woman who smoked one pack per day for 29 years but stopped smoking 9 years earlier had a 0.8% (less than 1 in a 100) risk of getting lung cancer in the next ten years while a 68-year-old man who smoked two packs a day for the past 50 years and continued to smoke had a 15% (1 out of 7) chance of developing the disease in the same time period."

The Pence statement, "9 out of ten smokers do not contract lung cancer" seems not to be outside the realm of rationality, given that he didn't give a seminar on statistics and how to blend risk factors. All in all, where is the evidence this statement was not true, in any event?

What is so shameful is that the Party, to borrow a phrase, so commonly picks the nits out of the Republicans, but ignores the HUGE BOULDERS obstructing its own perceptions.

The Party rarely, if ever, examines its own dogma and often ridiculous assumptions; the Party seldom, if ever, looks systemically at the causes of the ills its decries (often, these causes are found in governance by the Party, never mentioned because of its ideology); and the Party cannot, it seems, even be honest about the standards to which it supposedly hold ALL of those who seek to lead us.

This site is a perfect example. Every few days or so, we get a little nugget of smear, at the level of the most crass, base, under informed partisan, who cares nothing for the truth but only for partisan talking points.

Why is this appropriate on a site devoted to learning, knowledge and objectivity? Or, is this just a partisan site, devoted only to the Party?

Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King

In 1972, when I was a little boy, my dad and I got on an elevator where a lady was smoking. My dad told the lady that "that those things cause cancer and it stinks in here." The lady promptly told him that it was "none of his damn business." She probably voted for Trump, I mean Wallace.


"The Pence statement, "9 out of ten smokers do not contract lung cancer" seems not to be outside the realm of rationality, given that he didn't give a seminar on statistics and how to blend risk factors. All in all, where is the evidence this statement was not true, in any event?"

There were two statements. The first was "smoking doesn't kill." You basically prove in your comment that the statement was a lie. Why are you focusing on the second?


The statement itself included three assertions:

"Despite the hysteria from the political class and the media, smoking doesn't kill. In fact, 2 out of every three smokers does not die from a smoking related illness and 9 out of ten smokers do not contract lung cancer."

Sentence two (addressed above) refutes sentence one, unless you understand sentence one to include an implied "inevitably" or "always" modifier.

One wonders the reason the Party doesn't parse so carefully the statements of fact made by the Leaders of the Party. The Party completely ignores the relative importance of deliberate falsehoods while spending endless amounts of time attacking poorly articulated conceptual statements by the "enemies of the People" it regularly attacks on picayune bases, as evidenced by the post above.

Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King

Mikey here is an underhanded guy. He continues to poach Illinois businesses and employers even though a fellow Republican is governor of Illinois.


Chryslers on the dark side of Mississippi are only up because the gub'mint can't get two bills for a simple court appearance on a felony ashtray. Hundreds show up for a job fair, including my friends the out of work attorneys. But the bright side is that people always swat away at flies, and that attention is something that a pest welcomes. SALES! My drool is something that I think about only when I'm typing. Lighten up! Seems like I'm making a big impression here.

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