LSAC and Predicting Law School Applicants for 2016-17, Part 23

The LSAC is now reporting that "As of 05/13/16, there are 333,855 applications submitted by 51,894 applicants for the 2016–2017 academic year. Applicants are up 1.1% and applications are up 1.6% from 2015–2016. Last year at this time, we had 92% of the preliminary final applicant count."  The last post in this series is here.  The next post in this series is here.

Comments

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

This is part 23 of this post. We can fairly surmise that many law schools are desperate for sales, I mean, students. These repetitious postings feed into that angst. If you have been to a car dealer lately, one will find a white board with the names of sales people and the "target numbers" and actual numbers of vehicle sold. There is a film titled "The Slasher." It's about a Memphis Toyota dealer so desperate to "move" iron that he hires a "Slasher" to sell cars. He hires dancing ladies, gives out hot dogs and offers a Hyundai for $49.00. In so many ways, this film is about my profession, at least on my end, these days. You have a huge over supply of law schools and lawyers (cars and dealerships) and a limited market. What market that is available is the "CLIENT" who only wants that $49 Hyundai.

[anon]

Remember, we are closing in on the "best time in history" to graduate from law school, along with the MILLION DOLLAR premium that comes with it.

In one year, firms will be scrounging for new lawyers. Jobs will go unfilled. It is known.

We still wonder: where are the proponents of these promises?

And again, where are the proponents of the "secular" cycle theories?

All the hoopla in past years has quieted down because these folks have, in short, been proved to be so wrong, for so long.

But one misses their arrogant retorts, dogmatic proclamations, and often wildly inept attempts to dabble in economic theory.

[J.R. Goodwin]

Parts 22 and 23 both link to the same LSAC graph/data. At this rate, there will be about 56,407 applicants for the 2016-2017 academic year.

According to the LSAC "Three-year Applicant Volume Graphs", applicants are UP this year, but only slightly (1.1% at present, as was pointed out by Dr. Brophy, according to LSAC) but are still significantly less than for academic year 2014-2015.

As others have pointed out, it is difficult to know if this year will mark the turning point in the dropping application trend, or whether it is only a temporary pause in the slide, to be followed by another decrease.

I just re-checked my "special" folder on my email home page that is reserved for law-school-related emails: 129. That's 129 emails in about two and one-half months. And again, that's with my having no LSAT score on file (admittedly, my having a graduate degree does make me different from the typical prospective applicant).

I understand the reason for the emails, and I certainly don't blame the schools for sending them. After all, sending emails doesn't cost much. And I do certainly appreciate the information and the offers I am receiving, as it gives me a window into seeing what might be available out there in that wide world, outside just my personal state of residence.

Having said that, the Captain is actually spot on with his comparisons to the world of automotive sales. And it's a shame that the mass production of lawyers has led to this state of affairs for the profession (which reminds me of a joke, but I'll probably restrain myself for now).

Still, even in the car sales industry there are lots of people making big money ...

[Al Brophy]

J.R. Goodwin,

All of my posts in this series link to the same page at LSAC's website. The LSAC changes that page periodically, usually every week during the application season.

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

It's not the number of applicants that matter. It's the quality that counts. The new General Motors Company would rather sell 10 Escalades than 20 Sonics. When you write "application season" it sounds just like Toyotathon.

[J.R. Goodwin]

Dr. Brophy:
My mistake. So sorry!