LSAC and Predicting Applicants for 2016-17, Part 13

The LSAC is reporting that "As of 03/04/16, there are 279,020 applications submitted by 42,981 applicants for the 2016–2017 academic year. Applicants are up 2.2% and applications are up 1.8% from 2015–2016.  Last year at this time, we had 76% of the preliminary final applicant count."  Based on this preliminary data, one would predict that there will be around 56,553 applicants for 2016-17.

The last post in this series is here.  The next post in this series is here.

Comments

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

Isn't that far too many given the glutted attorney market? I just lost a gig that paid me $250.00 for each traffic matter I handled. I lost out to a far more desperate soul that agreed to do the same work for "well below $200.00." They will just hire one of the thousands and thousands of newbies at $15.00/Hr. that you guys pump out. That stunt does not give "access" to the underserved. It is potentially harmful and may subvert justice. What if the matter can not be resolved with one court appearance? Will the client be tossed under the bus in the name of money? Will clients be strong armed into a plea?

[anon]

Come on. This shtick is getting really old. At a minimum, at least diversify -- the legal market is comprised of many, many types of lawyers other than sole practitioners who handle traffic matters.

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

anon,

Agreed. However, 50% of the "legal market" are Solos. My point is that the market is so oversaturated, attorneys are desperately walking all over each other for any shred of work....we calling it tossing a bone. It maybe getting old to you, but thousands of us attorneys are stuck with what you call "shtick."

[Notapersona]

Maybe there's something wrong with YOU?! I suppose that's an impossible explanation for why the legal career of your dreams hasn't dropped into your lap?!

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

You are absolutely correct. There is something wrong with me. My Axis 1 Diagnosis is mild Intellectual Disability/Deficit functioning. Thank god I attended a therapeutic day law school that provided self-contained classrooms and was able to monitor my medication. If you want, I will be happy to tell you what psychotropic meds I am currently taking.

[Notapersona]

The shtick is so tiresome. Why don't you go outside and get some fresh air.

[anon]

There is no basis to the oft repeated claim here that 50% of attorneys in the US are solo practitioners. If you can point to data showing this Capt. please enlighten us.

[anon]

Please don't encourage him. It's all a shtick at our expense. It was humorous at first but now has gotten really tiresome.

[Jojo]

Anon,

It's just a hair under 50 percent per the ABA.

http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/migrated/marketresearch/PublicDocuments/lawyer_demographics_2013.authcheckdam.pdf

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

Interesting, "our expense." I believe we are both victims of the ABA and its accreditation binge. If the legal profession absorbed, hired or had good middle class sustaining work for all of its entrants and veteran attorneys who desired it, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Unfortunately, schools are buying out professors and "right sizing." You guys are interdependent with us practitioners. The better we do (Solos, Big Law, gub'mint, etc) will attract the high quality student you need to maintain the School. Our outcome flows to you guys. Were in this together. Its not a shtick. Go to the local court house a pull a couple of Solos aside....ask them how much money they got from their client for that day's appearance.

[Leo]

I do not know whether the Cpatain is real or not, but I do believe that he is correct in that the vast majority of attorneys are solo or very small (<10) firm practitioners and I remember hearing this from a lexis or Westlaw rep years ago when they started offering plans to these attorneys. You may recall that these services were originally available to only large firms, corporate legal departments and law schools. The companies realized that there was a lot of money to make offering plans to solos and small firms since that is where most lawyers work.

Get outside major cities and most populous states and all you find are solos and very small firms. Lawyers in these states do work hand to mouth. Take a state like South Dakota, only 2,000 lawyers in the entire state. No real large firms, al solos are very small firms.

[anon]

Leo: no data supports the assertion that half of all lawyers or more are solos. You (slyly? naively?) change the original assertion to include small firms which is not the issue. It's not the issue because BLS data tracks the income of all employed lawyers and that includes non-partners working for small firms. Hint: salaries and employment for lawyers including that group are up every year for two decades (except in 2008).

There are 1.2 mn licensed lawyers (ref: ABA). There are 600,000 "employed" lawyers (meaning not a partner or solo) (ref: BLS).

We simply do not know how many of the other 600,000 are retired, working as non-lawyers, partners or solos.

[Paul Campos]

According to the ABA, as of 2005 75% of lawyers were in private practice, and 49% of those were solos. Another 14% were in firms of 2-5 lawyers.

http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/market_research/lawyer-demographics-tables-2015.authcheckdam.pdf

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

I marvel at how my posts garner provoke? such attention and thought on this blog. No even Mrs. Carswell devotes such attention to me, unless she wants me to walk the dog or wash the dishes.

[Jojo]

ABA lawyer demographics survey from 2012 says 49 percent solo. That hasn't really changed over time. Just under half of all private sector lawyers fly solo.

Cpt Carswell's schtick is thus underrepresented, not over. We need more input from solos in this profession. We need more representation of them in law schools too.

We need more ordinary lawyers like them on the Supreme Court. They can't all be Frankfurters and Cardozos. (Couldn't resist, given your avatar, captain)

[[M][@][c][K]]

I love the way anon professors post about the legal profession authoritatively, while displaying a howling ignorance of its realities.

So yes, most lawyers are solos. But even when lawyers are in small-firms they are very often effectively solos sharing resources and office space, but ultimately in an eat-what-you kill, no-associates, all partners-sharing-overhead arrangement where they might as well be solos. Actually, a lot of solos operate out of that sort of arrangement too - they just don't have a "firm" name on the door.

Funny how anon at 03:00 PM at can naïvely say "You (slyly? naively?) change the original assertion to include small firms which is not the issue." Maybe anon should be given a test on his knowledge of the law as a business - pass-fail, tenure at stake? I mean, should a naïf about the practice of law be teaching those destined to practice law?

[AnonPracticingLawyer]

Is [M][@][c][K] the same person as Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King?

[anon]

APL

No, brackets is not the Captain. Not even close.

The Captain is a pretext; one whom I have believed from the start is a law prof who is intentionally portraying practitioners as jack a..es - for obvious reasons here in the Lounge.

[anon]

The data cited by Campos is more than a decade old but if the trend held it would mean about a third of all lawyers are solos, not a half.

Those in small firms are not at issue in this debate because incomes of employed lawyers has increased as have employment levels, steadily for many years.

[Captain Hruska Carswell, Continuance King]

Nope. Brackets is not me. You can tell by the patterned ICON that designates a new comment...All of my comments have a greenish sunburst pattern associated with my them since I started posting here. The reason I have so much "support" is that there are lot of attorneys like me who appear in court for a under 3 bills. I do what I do even though the check bounces sometimes. Plus, I try not to misrepresent things, even here. (See Prof. Lubet's posts on Ethnography) My world is populated by too many attorneys who are attempting to get a fee from people who REFUSE to pay for legal services. When they finally, reluctantly fork over the two bills, they expect us to waive our magic wands and make their problems disappear.