LSAC and Predicting Applicants for 2016-17, Part 5

The LSAC is reporting that "As of 01/08/16, there are 136,994 2016 applications submitted by 22,662 applicants for the 2016–2017 academic year. Applicants are up 1.2% and applications are down 1.8% from 2015–2016.  Last year at this time, we had 40% of the preliminary final applicant count." Based on this preliminary data, one would predict that there will be around 56,655 applicants for 2016-17.

The previous post in this series is here.   The next post in this series is here.

Comments

[anon]

Transparency, lower tuition, more emphasis on practice, more robust legal hiring...these things are all good things and are reflected applicant numbers.

[confused by your post]

I still think the final numbers at the end of the year will show an applicant increase in the 3.5-4.5% range. Schools are getting better and better at attracting applicants late in the cycle. They are investing more resources (time, money and effort) into attracting applicants much later in the cycle. Years ago, that phase of the admissions cycle would end pretty definatively and it was on to sorting through applicants. Not so today.

[anon]

Weren't some folks declaring the end of the decline last year at this time, based on little glimmers, based on the same old same old arguments?

Here are the facts:

2010–2011 -9.6%
2011–2012 -16.2%
2012–2013 -13.4%
2013–2014 -6.2%
2014–2015 -3.6%

Now: END OF THE DECLINE! A 3.5-4.5% INCREASE THIS YEAR!

One can fully expect that headline to appear elsewhere.

[[M][a][c][K]]

I'll give confused by your post the back end loading of applications - and the prodigious efforts of law schools to secure those applicants, but:

* consider first the quality of those applicants - how carefully have the law schools considered them beyond having a pulse, a signature for the loans and ahem! And an LSAT score (any score) - as far as the mythical other-indicia-of-potential-success, there is transparently no time to consider these factors;

* next consider the degree of commitment of these students combed out of those so apathetic about going to law school that they had to be sought out;

* now wonder about the discounts, financial aid and other blandishments used to persuade them to attend and realize that they will either (i) leave if their 1st semester or 1L grades are disappointing (especially if the financial aid is contingent on those results), or (ii) be a another non-revenue student.

It's not a solution.

[confused by your post]

[m][a][c][k],

No real argument with your points about schools attracting students late in the admissions cycle. See my comments in CAPS below:

* consider first the quality of those applicants - how carefully have the law schools considered them beyond having a pulse, a signature for the loans and ahem! And an LSAT score (any score) - as far as the mythical other-indicia-of-potential-success, there is transparently no time to consider these factors; SCHOOLS CARE ABOUT MONEY FIRST AND FOREMOST. BAD SCHOOLS WILL HAPPILY WORK TO ATTRACT AND ADMIT LOWER QUALITY APPLICANTS IN ORDER TO HARVEST THEIR FEDERAL STUDENT LOAN MONEY. THAT IS HOW THEY ABLE TO SURVIVE. LET'S BE HONEST, MOST LAW SCHOOLS TODAY MAKE ADMIT/REJECT DECISIONS BASED UPON A HANDFUL OF PIECES OF INFORMATION (LSAT, GPA, ETHNICITY) THAT TAKES ALMOST ZERO TIME TO REVIEW.

* next consider the degree of commitment of these students combed out of those so apathetic about going to law school that they had to be sought out; AGAIN, SCHOOLS DON'T CARE ABOUT "COMMITMENT." THEY CARE ABOUT MONEY.

* now wonder about the discounts, financial aid and other blandishments used to persuade them to attend and realize that they will either (i) leave if their 1st semester or 1L grades are disappointing (especially if the financial aid is contingent on those results), or (ii) be a another non-revenue student. I DON'T THINK APPLICANTS THAT APPLY VERY LATE IN AN ADMISSION CYCLE RECEIVE MORE TUITION DISCOUNTS THAN EARLIER ADMITS. THE GENERAL RULE THAT TUITION DISCOUNTS ARE A FUNCTION OF HIGH LSAT/GPA STILL APPLIES TO LATE APPLICANTS.

[[M][a][c][K]]

Is anyone going to disagree with -confused by you post -

??!!

[Captian Hurska Carswell, Continuance King]

Confused might be largely correct. Law School admission has seemingly devolved into a Walmart Uber world like spiral downward. The legal profession pie is only so big with fees, work, and clients, More Walmarts and Uber drivers have saturated the market to the point where nobody earns a decent income with "Everyday Low Prices." Its a race to the bottom. Same thing with law schools and grotesque oversaturation of the legal market. If law schools had maintained selective admission standards and the ABA no accredited new law schools in an over heated legal market, then graduating student would have found work. Work that paid them well or work they desired. That would have continued to attract new students. A Healthy Pattern. Its all about pie and Walmart.