LSAC Data and Predicting of Applicants for Fall 2015, Part 5

The LSAC is reporting that "As of 1/16/15, there are 153,547 fall 2015 applications submitted by 22,272 applicants. Applicants are down 7.7% and applications are down 10.4% from 2014.  Last year at this time, we had 44% of the preliminary final applicant count."   If this year's applicants follow last year's pattern, we'll have approximately 50,618 total applicants for the class entering in fall 2015.

The last post in this series is here.

Comments

[JM]

How in the h#$% are law schools ACCELERATING the trend of late applications. Are they racheting up marketing efforts after seeing dismal early returns? The distrubution curve of applications received by month must have changed dramatically in the last 5 years. What is going on here?

[anon]

Doesn't look that bad according to the website. Applications may be slightly lower now but overall the number of applicants is trending about the same as last year. I think we may even end up with more applicants (applying to fewer schools) this year than last based on that graph.

[twbb]

JM, the schools have largely dropped application deadlines. Yes, they're desperate. Even schools that list application deadlines will have no trouble ignoring them to fill seats.

[JM]

twbb,

Yeah, but they dropped their application deadlines a couple years ago. What is their gimmick this time? Are they finding new ways to bombard any poor soul that took the lsat? Is there some open air law school bizaar going on?

[anon]

Desperate? Sure there was a slight drop (7.7%) of applicants in January, but overall the green line is trending higher than last year. I think all law schools are looking for ways to increase access to justice pipelines but these alarmist comments are just that. . alarmist! With applications looking slightly higher I can't see where the crisis-talk is coming from. Are applications lower than in previous cycles? Sure, a quick look at the blue line to green line shows that, but I don't think this is some type of "law school [sic] bizaar" atmosphere. Please look at the data more carefully before jumping to sky is falling conclusions.

[JM]

Anon, you think a 7.7% drop is a slight drop? How would you feel if your 401k dropped 7.7% in a year?

Perhaps I was wrong in my first post. Perhaps the trend of applying later in the cycle is actually reversing itself! Instead of applying in March and April, applicants may be applying in January, creating a momentary reduction in the decline percentage. If so, we would expec the number to rebound to 9-10% in the Spring. I'm a glass half full guy. I guess we will wait and see.

[Anon123]

To me, it looks like the green line has been drawn in error this entire cycle. Every point in time, there are fewer applicants than last year.

[anon]

"With applications looking slightly higher I can't see where the crisis-talk is coming from. Are applications lower than in previous cycles? Sure, a quick look at the blue line to green line shows that, but I don't think this is some type of "law school [sic] bizaar" atmosphere."

Many on the law school defense team have difficulty with color (and error) recognition.

Unbelievably continuous decline is success! Failure is improvement! Self congratulation is a public service! Declining admissions criteria are stricter standards!

Orwell had nothing on this bunch.

[Barry]

Posted by: JM: "Yeah, but they dropped their application deadlines a couple years ago. What is their gimmick this time? Are they finding new ways to bombard any poor soul that took the lsat? Is there some open air law school bizaar going on?"

Rumor has it - schools are sending out a lot of mail late in the cycle, when they realize that they're at 50% (or whatever) of where they were hoping to be.

[Barry]

JM: "Anon, you think a 7.7% drop is a slight drop? How would you feel if your 401k dropped 7.7% in a year?"

It's closer to 'how would you feel if your salary dropped 7.7% this year? After four years of such cuts?'