LSAC Data and Predicting Number of Applicants for Fall 2015, Part 3

The LSAC is reporting that "As of 1/02/15, there are 116,256 fall 2015 applications submitted by 17,506 applicants. Applicants are down 9.0% and applications are down 11.1% from 2014.  Last year at this time, we had 35% of the preliminary final applicant count." If this year's applicants follow last year's pattern, we'll have approximately 50,017 total applicants for the class entering in fall 2015.

The last post in this series is here.

Comments

[anon]

Is it just me? Why does the green line for this year seem to be almost exactly the same as the red line for last year? Shouldn't it be lower by 9% and 11.1% from last year?

[Nathan A]

I just don't understand how only 35% of people have applied by now. Its freaking January!

[Plucknstuck]

December LSAT takers are up 0.8%. http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/lsats-administered

Although only a small increase, 16 of the previous 17 administrations have been down.

[Dec LSAT Volume]

December LSAT takers up 0.8 percent, according to the same site. 16 of the previous 17 administrations had been down, and down big.

[Concerned_Citizen]

@anon - I agree, given the scale you should be able to discern white space between the lines for a given ~ 10% difference, so I think something is not quite right with the data plotting at least for the # applicants graph.

[anon]

@Plucknstuck - The December 2013 had significant cancellations due to weather (especially in the northeast). That led to an increased number of takers in February.

Assuming that 250 takers scheduled for December 2013 were given a deferment until the February 2014 administration, that would conform to the general trend and make this the 18th consecutive year-over-year decline.

Of course this assertion requires some speculation, but I’d be willing to bet that this cycle will be the lowest since the 1987-1988 cycle. If I’m not mistaken, this would be lower than any previous cycle that LSAC publishes numbers for, even the cycles before when only the takers' best LSAT score counted.

I don’t think the end of the decline is in site.