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January 16, 2015

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John Steele

One possible scenario for the next several years is a recovering economy with increased demand from mid-sized and larger firms, along with lower bar passage rates and smaller numbers of bar exam takers. If that happens -- and I'm just speculating, of course -- we could have a fair number of "winners" among future grads, along with a fair number of "losers" too (i.e., those who never had much of a chance to pass the bar, who went into debt, and who don't pass). Given the steep discounting that currently can be had if a student is willing to attend a lower ranked school, I'm wondering if we won't be seeing a sharp breakpoint in outcomes. Then, a few years out, once the schools have cut costs and reduced output, it will be interesting to see if they can stop the discounting and start charging something close to sticker.

twbb

I also note that as bad as a 144 LSAT score sounds, it might actually be worse than you think if you are comparing it to historical scores. The equating process LSAC uses to score the LSAT ensures a median/average LSAT of approximately 150 from year to year.

If you see a multi-year decline in the ability of LSAT-takers, it will likely not be reflected in LSAT scores, so a 144 in 2014 could represent an even lower achievement than a 144 in 2007.

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