LSAC Data and Predicting Number of Applicants for Fall 2014, part 13

The LSAC reports that "As of 4/4/14, there are 324,781 fall 2014 applications submitted by 47,176 applicants. Applicants are down 8.0% and applications are down 9.3% from 2013.  Last year at this time, we had 86% of the preliminary final applicant count."  If this year's applicants follow last year's pattern, we'll have approximately 54,855 total applicants for the class entering in fall 2014.  Dan Filler has some historical data on the first year enrollment from 1964 to 2012 here.  I link to some more comprehensive data (going back to the 1940s) here. 

My last post in this series is here.

Comments

[anon]

Doing some quick math, and using some numbers from the last thread.

Assume 54,900 applicants.

Assume 30% of the LSAT takers scored over 160.

54,900 * 30% = 16,470 applicants with LSATs over 160.

Assume 38,430 enroll (54,900 * 70%, a very conservative estimate).

Assume the T100 enroll 21,000 (according to last thread, this number enrolled in the T100 last year).

If the T100 accepts and enrolls the entire population of students with LSAT scores over 160, there will be still about 4,530 seats to be filled in the T100 by students with LSAT scores below 160 (22% of the total number of seats).

That would leave about 17,430 enrollees to fill the entering classes in the next 100 law schools, all of whom with LSAT scores less than 160.

To put this in context and based on reported experience, last year about 16% of US law schools admitted students with a median LSAT of less than 150 and about 5% admitted students with a median LSAT of 145 or less.

At 150 on the LSAT, one is at about the 44th percentile.

At 140 on the LSAT, one is at about the 14th percentile.

Any corrections to these calculations, or identification of any inaccuracy in the reported facts, would be welcome!

One finds it hard to believe that the standards in ABA law schools have been permitted to reach these depths.

[Former Editor]

Have the percentage of total numbers been consistent over the years? What I mean is, can we reliably take last year's 86% as a number to extrapolate the final count from or do application patterns vary too much year over year?

[Steven Freedman (KU Law)]

Hello. I'll be posting on this subject over the next couple of days. Hopefully it will address some of the questions posed here. So hold on for a bit and we'll get right into it.