Law School Applicant Pool Likely To Shrink Further

LSAC has now released data about the number of people who sat for the October LSAT.  The total number of takers was down 10.9% from October 2012.  The number of first time takers was down roughly 13% from last October.  

When you pair this data with attendance levels at recent LSAC Law School Forums (law school fairs, essentially) in Boston (down 47% from last year), Houston (down 15.4% from last year) , Miami (down 16.3%), and New York (down 18%),  law school admissions teams and law school deans are staring down some grim news.  (One contrary data point: the summer LSAC Law School Forum in D.C. showed a decent uptick in attendance.) 

We don't yet know the total slide in law school matriculants for this year but many people are guessing that there are roughly 40,000 1L's at ABA schools this fall.  The possibilityof yet another 10% dip suggests that most schools will have to make significant concessions in student quality, revenue, or both.  What remains to be seen is how many schools will be able to gain additional funding - or radically restructure, how many will simply accept a nosedive in admissions predictors, and how many will simply conclude that the whole project is no longer worth the candle.

Bill Henderson predicted widespread law school  layoffs this fall.  While I hear rumblings of various sorts around the country - increased teaching loads, compensation cuts, buyouts (of varying levels of voluntariness), and a few layoffs - as best as I can tell, the hammer has not really fallen.  Take another 4000 tuitions out of the system however - call that $300 million dollars over three years (figuring an average tuition of $25/K per disappearing student) - and I imagine we'll be revisiting this whole issue again.  If that $300 million was spread across 200 law schools, that would still be a $1.5 million haircut .   But considering that the $300 million would likely be spread unevenly as more and more universities refuse further law school contraction, it's easy to imagine that the real costs to marginal schools might exceed $6 million over three years.  There are only so many subscriptions that a library can cancel.

Comments

[cas127]

"free live sex" Person -

Still far less pornographic than law school placement "stats"...

[cas127]

"Misery of Others"

"Energetically brought to you by law schools since 1985"(TM)

Your alumni drink your tears.

[Paula Marie Young]

Thanks for the kind feedback. I asked the Dean for a copy of his speech so I could accurately summarize it for a broader audience. I will blog more about the MAPLA programming, which covered in part:

- Employment Trends (by the Executive Director of NALP);
- A presentation on Helping Students Understand the Financial Aspects of Law School, which also included statistics on conditional (or competitive) scholarships and the "bait and switch" tactics of some schools; and
- The LSAC Update on law school application trends.

I have started blogging about it here: http://the-red-velvet-lawyer.blogspot.com/2013/10/mapla-conference-in-st-louis-missouri.html

Based on this new information, I will likely update some of my earlier postings, especially about the value of a law degree.

Also, the Dean mentioned this most recent (quiet) effort to reduce faculty: http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2013/10/29/new-england-law-dean-pay-buyout.html

TaxProf blog has posted some additional information. http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2013/10/new-england-dean.html

[E]

Paula, is there a link to the LSAC graph of cycles since the mid 60s, or are you aware of its (or a similar) visual anywhere? It would be interesting to see that.

[heh]

Dapper Dan made the big time:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/01/education/drop-in-lsat-takers-shows-legal-fields-slump.html

[Barry]

"Paula, is there a link to the LSAC graph of cycles since the mid 60s, or are you aware of its (or a similar) visual anywhere? It would be interesting to see that."

Posted by: E

Seconding this request - I've seen the claim made quite a bit, but nobody making it has *ever* posted data showing that the present crisis has any historical parallel (short of the Great Depression).

And by parallel I mean jobs:grads ratio *and* salaries:tuition ratio (with the salaries data including all salaries, not just the better ones which the law schools are willing to declare).

[Paula Marie Young]

My next summary and analysis of the LSAC data presented at the MAPLA conference. http://the-red-velvet-lawyer.blogspot.com/2013/11/mapla-conference-lsac.html

By geographic region.

[ATLprof]

Wow. Part of me hopes that all these comments by spambots just keep attracting more and more spam comments until the whole thing becomes a self-sustaining process.

[anon]

ATL: ALmost better than the real comments, no?

[Paula Marie Young]

We are not alone. http://the-red-velvet-lawyer.blogspot.com/2013/11/graduate-school-bubbles-bursting-across.html

Graduate school bubbles may be bursting across professions.

[website]

With blogs like this around I don't even need website anymore. I can just visit here and see all the latest happenings in the world.