While initial media reports suggest the individual mandate is in big trouble, Justice Kennedy asked questions indicative of someone receptive to the arguments in favor of the individual mandate. So did Justice Roberts. While both of them also challenged the Solicitor General, there still is good reason to think that the mandate could be upheld by a 6-3 vote.
The justices want some limiting principles, but there are more than enough distinguishing features of the health care insurance market to assure them that upholding the mandate will not result in a broad, federal power to force people to buy things they don't want to buy.
For my commentary on yesterday's hearings and further discussion about the mandate, see this post on CNN. For the oral argument transcript, see here
[cross-posted at Health Law Profs]
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