Thoughts on the Super Bowl

I think that NFL head coaches are generally uncreative and extremely risk-averse, and they are absolutely terrible at clock management.  There were several important questionable coaching decisions in the Super Bowl:

1)  Up 9-3 with 10 minutes to go in the first half at the New England 41, Coughlin decides to punt on 4th and 4.  With an expected net punt of 30 yards and against a prolific offense, I'd have taken my chances against the weak Patriots defense.  There's been lots of discussion (in academic circles and elsewhere--see, e.g., the recent HBO Realsports report on the very successful high school coach that literally never punts) about coaches punting too much on 4th and short and this was a classic case.

2)  Down 17-15 early in the 4th quarter, the Giants burn two timeouts because the coaches get the play in too late.  This stuff drives me crazy. In a tight game, timeouts are hugely valuable and coaches throw them away because they obsess over the right play call.  Belichick is great at not doing this.  The extra 5 seconds to choose the "perfect" play is simply not worth the risk of burning a timeout.  And in each case it would've been better to take the 5 yard penalty than burn the timeout. (More on 5 yard penalties being not so bad below.)  Lucky for the Giants it didn't turn out to matter, but this was terrible.  Chris Collinsworth was excellent at criticizing this.

3)  Down 17-15, 1st and goal at the NE 7, 1:07 left, clock is stopped, and NE has two timeouts.  If the Giants kneel down three times (centering the ball in the middle of the field), NE burns its last two timeouts, and the Giants have a perfectly centered 27 yard field goal indoors to win the Super Bowl.  By running the ball, they risk a bad handoff and a fumble and scoring quickly.  At the very least, Coughlin should have told Bradshaw not to score until third down.

4)  Same situation.  New England stuffs the 1st down run, takes a timeout, and then on 2nd down, lets Bradshaw coast into the endzone.  Nice decision (in fact, the NE players should have pushed  or carried Bradshaw into the end zone if they saw he was reluctant to go in himself; while there is a forward progress rule, there's nothing that prevents the defense from pushing an offensive player forward), but the decision was one play too late, costing NE 5 seconds and, much more importantly, one timeout.  Instead of down 4 with 1:00 to and 2 timeouts, NE had only 1 timeout and a few less seconds.  The only explanation for why the "escort into the end zone" strategy came one play late is that Belichick had to explain it to his players and needed a timeout to do so.  But he could have prepared his team for the possibility over the two minute warning.  And, for a supposedly detail-oriented guy, I'm very surprised that he didn't prepare his team for this possibility during practices.  (Again, Collinsworth was right on top of this, well before Belichick appeared to be.) 

5)  Coughlin goes for 2, up 4 with :57 to go and NE has 1 timeout.  If they make it, then NE needs to score a TD and convert the 99.9% PAT to win.  I'd have taken the traditional extra point in case NE happened to score a quick TD.  Then a FG by the Giants wins the game rather than sending it into OT (after they miss the 2 point conversion).  Very unlikely, of course, that NE would score a TD that quickly but I think more likely than a missed PAT in pristene conditions with the Super Bowl on the line.

6)  NE has the ball, down 4, on its own 44, with :17 left and no timeouts.  The Giants end up getting called for 12 men on the field, which actually I think is a great coaching  move, though I'm sure it was unintentional.  There are many endgame (or end-of-the-half) situations where a defensive team will gladly trade 5 yards for 6 seconds.  This was one of them.  Unless NE gets at least 30 yards, the only chance is a hail mary.  So, if I was Coughlin I'd put extra guys on the field and tell everyone to grab an eligible receiver and hold on for dear life (and leave 4 or so safeties back for good measure).  2 plays just like that and NE has the ball at the Giants 45 with at most :06 left.  You can't foul on the last play because the offense will get another play, but the last play is a hail mary.  (Brady might get wise the second time if he sees extra guys on the field and spike the ball immediately, costing only a second or two, but probably not.)   Even better to do this intentioanl foul strategy when the other team has timeouts left, since the clock will stop after each play regardless.   Basketball coaches always use intentional fouls, but football coaches never do it. 

Comments

[Howard Wasserman]

As to # 6, that would create an interesting discussion about deterrence and punishment and the need to rework the sanction for penalties (at least in the last two minutes or so) to eliminate the incentive to do what you're suggesting.

[Colin Miller]

I recently read the book "Scorecasting" and would highly recommend it. It challenges a lot of the conventional wisdom in sports and addresses topics such as the high school coach who never punts (and explains why he has it right).

[Joe (not that one)]

"So, if I was Coughlin I'd put extra guys on the field and tell everyone to grab an eligible receiver and hold on for dear life (and leave 4 or so safeties back for good measure)."

And then if I was Belichik, I'd instruct Brady to avoid the one- or two-man rush as long as possible, wait for one of the tight ends to drag the defender down inside the 20, and have him throw it in that general vicinity. With the PI call, you get the ball at the spot of the foul.

[Gregg]

Joe,

My plan would involve the DBs letting go of the receivers once they've gone beyond 5 or so yards (while still covering them of course) to avoid any PI call. The disruption of the play would still be significant.

[Richard Gershon]

The rules were amended to take time off of the clock when the offensive team commits a foul late in the game. Maybe time should be added when the defense commits a late game infraction (inside two minutes of the half or the game).

Eli (an Ole Miss grad) was great when it counted!

[Bill Turnier]

Gregg and I talked about this over lunch yesterday. The football coaches could really learn something about clock management and use of substitutes by watching basketball coaches and their use of the clock and control of players on substitutions. Part of the problem is a team philosophy problem and an entire coaching staff problem. I think that I can count on one hand ( perhaps two fingers) the number of basketball game I have gone to where a team had too many players on the court. It seems to happen in in about 25% of the football games. The really good college basketball coaches are masters in using the clock. Football is another thing as Gregg points out. Michael Lewis probably has a book in the works on truisms in football that need rethinking such as why yards yielded is not a good measure of defensive prowess and use of the clock.