Where Are All These Bar Candidates Coming From?

The New York Times has an article, The Lawyer Surplus, State by State,about a recent post on the Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. (emsi) blog, Data Spotlight: New Lawyers Glutting the Market, that shows that, for calendar year 2009, the number of persons who passed the Bar in each State, as well as nationwide, far outstripped the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates of annual openings for lawyers for 2010 through 2015. Nationwide the number of passers is more than twice the number of openings (26,329 openings vs. 53,508 passers).

Two things struck me about the emsi data. First, it looked at Bar passers, as opposed to Bar takers. According to the 2009 Bar statistics from the National Conference of Bar Examiners (which emsi said they used), excluding Bar candidates in U.S. possessions, a total of 53,508 persons passed a Bar in some state, but 77,377 persons took a Bar in some jurisdiction, or almost three times the number of openings.

Second, the emsi data also shows 44,159 "completers"(persons getting a J.D.?) for 2009. Assuming that all "completers" took a Bar examination in 2009, where did the other 33,218 takers come from? According to the NCBE's 2009 statistics:

• 19, 349 were repeaters (see First-Time Exam Takers and Repeaters in 2009)
• 5,723 did not study law in the U.S (see "Persons Taking and Passing the 2009 Bar Examination by Source of Legal Education") and
• 58 "read" the law (same).

That leaves 8,088 takers not accounted for. Some might have been prior-year completers, but some of the 2009 completers did not take a 2009 exam. Call that a wash. My own guess is that these are lawyers who already admitted to the Bar in some US jurisdiction, but who had not practiced long enough to be admitted on motion (without taking a Bar exam)--in most states, at least five years. Comprehensive Guide to Bar Admission Requirements, Chart 10.

Note, even comparing openings to completers, the numbers are not good. Nationally, there were openings for only 59% of the completers. Sounds like a lot of solo practitioners and a lot of others looking for a more steady paycheck, even if not in a law "opening". Only ten states had more openings than completers: Alaska (which has no law school); Arizona; Colorado; Idaho; Nevada; New Jersey; New Mexico; North Carolina; and Utah. North Carolina had the most unfilled openings.

Hat tip to Paul Caron.

Update: A couple of commenters have suggested that contiguous states often schedule Bar exams so that candidates can take the Bar in each state in the same "administration," particularly the Summer exams.

Comments

[Matt]

How are people who took the bar in more than one state counted? In some areas it's very common to take both, say, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, or New Jersey and New York. Could that by your mystery group?

[Gary]

Each state counts their own takers. I wonder how many people take the bar in more than one state in the same year. If you're a graduate from an elite law school in California, with a job in New York, I can see taking the California Bar exam just to get admitted. But, you'd still need to pass the New York exam to be admitted there. But would you take July bars in both states the summer after you graduate? I suppose that might be possible where the actual exam dates don't overlap.

[Matt]

"But would you take July bars in both states the summer after you graduate? I suppose that might be possible where the actual exam dates don't overlap."

That's what people who take PA and NJ, or NJ and NY do. (Probably also with DC and Maryland, DC and Virgina, etc.) I can say that "many" people take NJ and either PA and NY, but how many I don't know. The NJ exam is set up specifically so that you can take it and the NY or PA exam together with it.

[Gary]

That makes sense, especially in metroplexes that spill over state boundaries. Thoughtful and civilized.

One of my clients once got sued in PA. We got local counsel. In reviewing the pleadings, I was surprised to see that PA used the common-law forms of action and pleading? Does PA still do that? That would be something else to study.

[John Nelson]

Tennessee takes sometimes take the bar in Georgia or Alabama. I know my bar year there were about 50 or so folks taking a second bar to TN. I was one; I took Georgia as well. I think Florida's schedule also allows folks to take neighboring bars, but I'm not sure on that. I'm sure there are some others, too. That might account for the bulk of the missing.

The study also concludes that DC has a surplus of openings compared to jobs; which is questionable since you can waive in to D.C. relatively easily (which I also did.)

[Patrick]

Note that many, many bar takers have jobs waiting; they are thus employed in positions not listed as "open." My speculation is that adjusting the numbers to account for those students would bring the number of passers much closer to the number of job openings.