“Some Investor Guy” On Sovereign Debt

Over at Calculated Risk, “some investor guy” has a very informative series of posts on sovereign debt, including current and historical data; market estimates of the probabilities of default around the world; estimated losses, including under a "really bad" scenario (whoa! Try not to focus on that Japan number, yikes); and the possible impact on the CDS, interest rate swap, and FX market.

Part 1: How Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?


Part 2. How Often Have Sovereign Countries Defaulted in the Past?


Part 2B: More on Historic Sovereign Default Research


Part 3. What are the Market Estimates of the Probabilities of Default? 


Part 4. What are Total Estimated Losses on Sovereign Bonds Due to Default? 


Part 5A. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? $15 Trillion of Sovereign Debt in Default

Part 5B. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? More Things Can Go Badly: Credit Default Swaps, Interest Swaps and Options, Foreign Exchange

We’ve also had numerous posts here at the Lounge on the legal aspects of sovereign debt and related crises, particularly the Greece bailout.  They’re collected here.