Beating The Odds

Carol applied to Yale.

So did Kenny.

Martina, too.

And Ray.

Last week,  Yale offered each of them a spot in the next freshman class.

And why is this newsworthy?

Carol, Kenny, Martina and Ray are siblings.

And quadruplets. 

According to this story, Yale has never offered admission to quadruplets.

So what are the odds?

I invite one of our readers who is a math whiz to tell us. 

Comments

[Eric Fink]

Has Yale ever even previously received simultaneous applications from quadruplets? And, while the article quotes a Yale official as saying "to render the same decision on siblings in the same year", I wonder what the track record has been -- are siblings who apply at the same time more or less likely to receive offers of admission than other similar applicants?

Anyway, this is one impressive bunch of kids.

[Tim Zinnecker]

Eric, this story reminded me of the "60 Minutes" profile a few years ago of five siblings from Utah who attended Juilliard.

[Eric Muller]

To do the calculations of the odds, would one need to know how frequently quadruplets apply to Yale?

(Is Octomom a Yale alum? They'd all be legacies!)

[Tim Zinnecker]

EM, would you truly need to know the frequency of applications by quadruplets?

I thought the calculation would be something like this:

Number of admission offers ["X"] divided by number of applications ["Y"]. That would give you the odds per applicant. Then take that answer and ... [this is where my college statistics class should come in handy] ... do something with it to reflect that we're talking about four specific applicants (who just happen to be quadruplets).

Would the answer be: (X divided by Y) to the fourth power?