The AALS is scheduled to release the "first distribution" of FAR forms tomorrow (Thursday).
How many forms will be in the "first distribution"?
Here's my guess: 943.
How about you?
(For those of you who are fans of "The Price is Right," please refrain from submitting a low-ball bid of "1." I hate those folks!)
650
Posted by: On the Market | August 12, 2009 at 01:01 PM
In the spirit of "The Price is Right," I guess 944.
Posted by: Scott Boone | August 12, 2009 at 02:49 PM
Scott, now that's just WICKED! I hope visions of Bob Barker and Johnny Olson haunt you tonight.
Posted by: Tim Zinnecker | August 12, 2009 at 03:43 PM
I say 1051. Is there a prize for the closest guess? Free dinner in DC on Tim's faculty budget??
Posted by: Jacqueline Lipton | August 12, 2009 at 07:55 PM
I asked other members of my committee to venture a guess. So far, the low is 750 and the high is 1014.
Jacqui, why MY budget? If this is a contest, isn't "the lounge" the official sponsor?
Posted by: Tim Zinnecker | August 12, 2009 at 08:18 PM
I have to go with 1101. I'm optimistic (or is a flooded job market "pessimistic"? Hard to know!). Good luck to everyone on their faculty's appointments committee (Tim, haven't they let you off that thing yet?!).
Posted by: Tracy McGaugh | August 12, 2009 at 09:40 PM
OK - so, Dan and Al, will you be springing for dinner in DC for the winner of this thing? Actually, how many Loungers will be in DC? It would be interesting to know.
Posted by: Jacqui L. | August 12, 2009 at 09:48 PM
I'm going to go with 1200 - it's the economy :-)
Does anyone have an estimate of how many jobs are out there? It would be interesting to know the "acceptance rate" i.e. what percent of people who apply get a job.
Posted by: Jeff Yates | August 13, 2009 at 08:15 AM
Ok, I just got my number and its . . . between 500 and 600 (can't be too specific here). I'm guessing it's a bit higher than that though. So far all of the above can still be winners. Anyone have the final answer? Inquiring minds want to know!
Posted by: Meat Marketeer | August 13, 2009 at 10:04 AM
I also have a feeling that there will be less attrition in terms of people dropping out of interviews originally scheduled, in order to take up offers of interview slots at higher ranked schools. We usually count on up to 2/3 attrition between initial offer and the actual conference, but I bet there's less than that this year.
Posted by: Jacqueline Lipton | August 13, 2009 at 10:06 AM
I'm getting reports (OK, report singular) that the number is 637. If this were the Price is Right, we'd all have overbid!
Very interesting. My initial speculation would be that the faculty hiring process in general and the AALS process in specific are better kept secrets than we might think.
Posted by: Scott Boone | August 13, 2009 at 05:38 PM
Anyone out there know the numbers for this year's (2010) first distribution? Any idea how long after the first distribution schools generally start setting up interviews? Where are all the posts about this year's process so that I can start my pointless obsessing over things outside my control?
Posted by: Candidate | August 17, 2010 at 01:22 AM