Sex offender community notification laws - sometimes known as Megan's Laws - have been a popular way for legislators to establish their anti-crime bona fides. We've known that these laws have a disparate impact on people of color. To date, though, there has been little data on their efficacy. Legislators and activists argued that these laws would help prevent recividism - both because it would scare offenders and empower potential victims and families to protect themselves.
Prescott and Rockoff have a new paper up on SSRN which presents an interesting take on this issue of effectiveness. This, from their conclusion:
We also find evidence that notification laws reduce crime, but do so by deterring potential criminals, not necessarily recidivists. In fact, our results suggest that registered offenders might be more likely to commit crime in a state that imposes a set of notification requirements, perhaps because of heavy social and financial costs associated with the public release of their information.
In many ways, these results make sense. To the degree that individual offenders have control over their actions, notification functions as a deterring punishment (notwithstanding the fact that the Supreme Court has happily embraced the fiction that Megan's Law isn't punishment at all). To the degree that the an individual's conduct really is beyond rational control, offenders will reoffend notwithstanding the existence of registration and notification laws. (It remains possible that notification empowers potential victims - that is a separate and complicated issue.)
We do need more research on the effectiveness of these laws. To be candid, though, I doubt such data will have much effect on the politics of community notification. These laws are first and foremost politicals tools for particular politicians and interest groups; secondarily, they are tools of retributive punishment against convicted offenders. Even if they are utterly ineffective, and increase crime overall, Megan's Laws will maintain powerful support in our legislatures.
Hat tip: Doug Berman.
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