Could The Texas Primary Turn The Lonestar State Blue?

One of the remarkable things about this primary season is that Clinton and Obama are contesting some states that rarely receive signficant attention from Dems in either the primary or general election.  Thus, few Texans have probably ever seen a political campaign ad for a Democratic presidential candidate.  Why would a Democrat ever waste the money on a Lonestar ad buy?  But this year, those ads are bouncing around the airwaves.  (Isn't that a quaint expression, given that almost everyone now ignores those free airwaves and purchases them via cable?)  This introduces an interesting question: is it possible that the very act of advertising and campaigning in Texas today could have a noticeable effect on the percentage of Texans who either vote, or are open to voting, Democratic this fall?  One interesting question will be whether these primary campaigns at least soften pro-Republican preferences to the point that McCain is forced to spend some amount of time or effort in the state.  No rational Democratic finalist would have spent millions on Texas in the general, but with the money now sunk, it might make sense to translate the investment into some value this November.

Comments

[Calvin Massey]

Because the Texas Democratic primary is open to voters of any party, and because John McCain is the virtually certain Republican nominee, there will be lots of independents and Republicans who will vote in the Democratic primary. Some of those folks may do so to register an affirmative vote for Obama or (less likely) for Clinton, but many will vote for Obama to kill the Clinton candidacy or vote for Clinton either to prolong the Democratic bloodletting or in the belief that Hillary is easier to beat in November. So, I think it's dangerous to assume that Texas might be tilting Democratic in November because the total Democratic vote next Tuesday will exceed the Republican vote total.