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June 05, 2013

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MacK

Steven -

That he did not leak to Brian Leiter.....

NYC schools

@confused - It was not clear whether you were asking for a citation for Dan's "desparate denial," which I have no opinion on (even less a citation for), or for the proposition that enrollment was declining dramatically.

John Thompson

"Unless something truly extraordinary has happened to non-cyclical demand, a degrees-awarded-per-capita analysis suggests that beginning in fall 2015 and intensifying into 2016 employers are likely to experience an undersupply of law grads, provided that the economic recovery continues. To some extent, this will be buffered by recent oversupply."

Well, we're not going to account for anything truly extraordinary happening to this non-cyclical demand, like competition for high-end corporate work from foreign firms, or predictive coding squeezing the market for document reviewers, or a protracted budgetary standoff between Democrats and Republicans leading or contributing to freezes or reductions in state and federal attorney positions, or a public willing to take a chance on LegalZoom or similar providers for legal services cheaper than most attorneys can provide on a paying basis. But assuming none of this matters AND the economic recovery continues (whatever that might actually mean to Seto, we don't know), then there MAY be an undersupply in three years, at least somewhere in the United States.

What might employers do in response to that undersupply? Eh, dunno. It's not like there aren't tens of thousands of unemployed or underemployed JDs who have passed a bar exam somewhere since 2008. Maybe those people won't help to hold down wages to a point where the Department of Justice can offer unpaid prosecutor positions not leading to employment and find takers. Who knows? Maybe this will be just what was needed to make lawyer earnings go up twelvefold the way that law school tuition has over the last thirty years.

About fifteen schools at most account for the two or three thousand legal jobs in a year which offer salaries of $100,000 or more. They also account for most of the more desirable public-interest jobs. To say that there is an undersupply is not an act of fraud, but to imply that it will make a difference in salary or opportunity for most of those 36,000 new JDs almost certainly is.

Adam B

Have we seen the article where Judge Lippman, in an effort to keep his gig as the head of the NY Court of Appeals and the race-to-the-bottom state bar, has helped to support an effort to increase the retirement age of judges from age 70 to 80. That would give him 10 more years as the head of the court (and I was looking forward to Cuomo picking a good replacement). It would also keep most of the already decrepit judiciary in place for 10 years longer, further gumming up the cycle of entering/exiting lawyers.

That is a major problem, as so many old lawyers keep practicing until they are plugged into ventilators. Often, they lack the energy or clarity to do the same work they did in their prime (I am working right now on an IAOC appeal because a 73-year-old on dialysis missed key parts of the felony case, including appointments and hearings).

We need judges to retire so that people in their 50s can get bumped up to the bench. This, in turn, may allow younger people to move up the ranks in the PD and DA offices and other pools where judges tend to be born.

The hanging on of the boomer generation makes the pile-up at the end of the Law School Industrial Complex conveyer-belt that much worse.

Jeff Matthews

Adam,

While we're at it, we need to just kill-off everyone older than 80 so we can preserve funding for Medicaid.

still waiting for MacK

MacK, we're still waiting for you to back up this statement with a citation: "Dan Filler's approving posting of it is remarkable in inherently admitting something that Dan ... had until now been desperately denying - that there was a substantial fall in the number of law school matriculations in progress."

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