Gore For President. And No, I Am Not Joking.

Weeks ago I argued that Gore was more likely than Hillary to score the Democratic nomination.  I continue to believe this is true - and that every time Hillary lands a punch, as she did to a non-negligible degree in Pennyslvania - it brings Al Gore all that much closer to the Democratic nomination.  Let me be clear: I am not predicting that Gore is actually likely to get the nod - only that he is more likely than Clinton to do so and that his odds are on the rise.   

Why does he make sense?  Hillary's successful efforts in Pennsylvania and Ohio suggest that Obama may have real trouble with these important states.  And polls show that many blue collar Dems will vote McCain.  But Hillary is loathed - seriously and totally hated - by large segments of America.  And given her campaign's approach to race in this campaign, it is far from clear that she could fully reconstruct the traditional Democratic coalition.  (Not for nothing, John McCain is hanging out with Hank Sanders near the Pettus Bridge in Selma.)  And let's be candid: a superticket, featuring both candidates, is at least as likely to lose voters than it is to win them over.  Not that either of these folks seems eager to try it out.

But the toughest reality of all is that, in a year of total discontent with Republicans, there are a flock of other Democrats who could probably win this thing.  Now, neither Obama nor Hillary would ever tolerate being displaced by a Joe Biden, Tim Kaine or even John Edwards.  After all, they've put their hearts and souls on the line for the nomination - and supporters might well feel betrayed if either surrendered the nomination to a non-candidate.  They could only step aside for Democratic royalty, for someone truly unique.  A former vice president.  A Nobel prize winner.  Obama and Hillary could, if they chose, hand the keys to Gore and leave the Democratic coaltion not only intact, but enlarged.

I've long supported Obama, and I continue to see him as the best choice for the job.  But I've been troubled by my anxiety that both he and Hillary would be headed for a November train wreck.  Recently I've been floating this Gore idea to friends.  Many people dismiss it initially as unrealistic.  But the more they ponder it, the more they get excited.  A certain depression has set in among Democrats who have not strongly aligned with the two existing candidates and the prospect of a Gore candidacy offers a lot of hope.  If, in a few weeks, the balance of superdelegates remains uncommitted and Hillary stays in the race, pressure is going to rise for a solution.  And you can bet that John McCain is praying that Al Gore isn't it.

Update: At RealClearPolitics, we now see that Steven Stark of the Boston Phoenix is also starting to think Gore.

Comments

[John C]

"Hillary's successful efforts in Pennsylvania and Ohio suggest that Obama may have real trouble with these important states."

Please explain why you think this to be the case. This is a line the Clinton camp has been spinning for months, and not a single person has been able to explain why Obama's showing in a Democratic primary in a particular state has any relation to his likelihood of success in that state in a general election.

[Dan Filler]

John, neither Ohio nor PA are shoo-ins for a Democrat. When it appears that one candidate - in this case, Obama - is having trouble courting a particular Democratic cohort in those states, when that group sizably backs the other candidate, when that group has shown a willingness to vote Republican in the past, and when exit polls suggest that many of these folks will indeed back McCain, I think there's something to worry about.